Royals Review: FanPosts

RR Royals #2 Prospect

doublestix — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:24:50 -0000

#1 Mike Moustakas, 3B
#2 ???

Vote for who you believe is the Royals #2 prospect.

Short scouting reports:

Daniel Cortes | RHP | 21-years-old | 6-foot-6, 225 pounds
-Big workhorse body, fastball sits 93-96 and can peak higher. Already has plus curve. Changeup still lags a bit, as does command of fastball.

Daniel Duffy | LHP | 19-years-old | 6-foot-3, 185 pounds
-Four pitch lefty. Fastball 88-93, has been clocked higher in the past. Good curve, good change, both potential to be plus. Still needs to improve fastball command, but made huge strides this year thanks to improved mechanics.

Eric Hosmer | 1B | 18-years-old | 6-foot-4, 210 pounds
-Big raw power projection, perhaps biggest from this past draft. Trouble with inside pitch, not different from many young left-handed bats though. Great approach. Projects as plus defender at 1B (insert joke here).

Tim Melville | RHP | 18-years-old | 6-foot-5, 205 pounds
-Extremely projectable with present stuff. Already 91-94 with chance for plus curve and change. Scouts love his long term fastball projection, think he could throw very hard.

Carlos Rosa | RHP | 24-years-old | 6-foot-1, 185 pounds
-Smallish righty with great fastball. Ranges 92-95 with a little sink. Plus hard slider, his best pitch. Good change but inconsistent. Might be a bullpen guy long term. Nearly big league ready.

Poll

Who is the Royals #2 prospect? (players listed in alphabetical order)

Two things - Hochevar & Soria

hazel — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 01:41:04 -0000

First, what is everyone expecting from Hochevar? Personally, I expect nothing. I think Hochevar sucks and I think his time has passed. His mechanics have always been questionable (hung-arms Tom House pose), and he has never been able to put it together at any level for any length of time. Even when he has been able to post decent ERAs in small sample sizes his peripherals have been terrible. His FIP has never been good. None of his pitches grades highly. He has been touted by many as having the potential to be a #3 starter, but I can scarcely see that. Why do people like Hochevar at all?

Second, how likely is it that Joakim Soria gets a shot at the rotation? He seems like the utter anti-Hochevar: A guy who was drafted late and never given much of a shot despite consistently looking very good with the stuff and peripherals to back it up. He pounds the strike zone, and has several decent pitches (compared to, say, Hochevar who has zero). Also, I've heard he's the closer to limit his injury risk. Excuse me? As far as I know, he has never had one single injury and was a starter for his entire minor league/mexican league career. I remember hearing one person say his mechanics were bad, but I haven't seen anything to substantiate this claim.

RR Royals #1 Prospect

doublestix — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:03:01 -0000

I know a lot of other sb nation sites do this, so I thought it'd be cool to do it as well. I think we have enough fans here that are informed enough on the minors.

Just give your vote. We'll go to like 10 or 15, after that it might get difficult. Once we get lower in the list, then start to give suggestions of who should be on the voting list.

It will be cool to compare our list to Baseball America and other sites when it is done.

Short scouting reports:

Daniel Cortes | RHP | 21-years-old | 6-foot-6, 225 pounds
-Big workhorse body, fastball sits 93-96 and can peak higher. Already has plus curve. Changeup still lags a bit, as does command of fastball.

Eric Hosmer | 1B | 18-years-old | 6-foot-4, 210 pounds
-Big raw power projection, perhaps biggest from this past draft. Trouble with inside pitch, not different from many young left-handed bats though. Great approach. Projects as plus defender at 1B (insert joke here).

Tim Melville | RHP | 18-years-old | 6-foot-5, 205 pounds
-Extremely projectable with present stuff. Already 91-94 with chance for plus curve and change. Scouts love his long term fastball projection, think he could throw very hard.

Mike Moustakas | 3B | 20-years-old | 6-foot-0, 200 pounds
-Another big power bat, lightning quick bat and wrists. His for good contact for a power bat. Projects as plus defender at 3B, could move to RF with his plus-plus arm.

Carlos Rosa | RHP | 24-years-old | 6-foot-1, 185 pounds
-Smallish righty with great fastball. Ranges 92-95 with a little sink. Plus hard slider, his best pitch. Good change but inconsistent. Might be a bullpen guy long term. Nearly big league ready.

Poll

Who is the Royals #1 prospect? (players listed in alphabetical order)

Skimming the Scrapheap

SittinByTheFoulPole — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:21:36 -0000

I was going to suggest somewhere on this site that maybe the Royals will take a look at signing Mike Hampton to one of the ever popular incentive-laden deals this winter… potentially add a lefty starting pitcher into the rotation mix. Sure, there’s absolutely nothing to say that Hampton can stay healthy for even a couple of spring training starts, but it might be worth a flier, right? Then I got to thinking about all of these injury-prone veteran pitchers many of us talked about at some time or another last offseason. You could put together a pretty good rotation (well, good circa 2002) with the oft injured free agent class of 2008. But did any of these guys make the investment, regardless how small, pay off? Here’s the brief list I’ve compiled and their 2008 statistics.

Bartolo Colon (BOS) – 4-2, 3.92 ERA, 27/10 K/BB, 39 IP

Jason Jennings (TEX) – 0-5, 8.56ERA, 12/18 K/BB, 27.1 IP

Freddy Garcia (DET) – 1-1, 4.20 ERA, 12/6 K/BB, 15 IP

Matt Clement (STL) – No statistics for 2007 or 2008

Mark Prior (SD) – No statistics for 2007 or 2008

Kris Benson (unsigned) – No statistics for 2007 or 2008

Jaret Wright (PIT) – No statistics for 2008, 10 IP in 2007 for BAL

Wow, clearly 2008 was an awful year for these types of signings. I believe each one of these scrapheap savants will be available again this offseason and add to the list…

Mike Hampton (ATL) – 3-4, 4.85 ERA, 38/28 K/BB, 78 IP

Carl Pavano (NYY) – 4-1, 5.77 ERA, 15/10 K/BB, 34.1 IP ($13MM club option for 2009, Wow!)

Brad Penny (LAD) – 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51/42 K/BB, 94.2 IP ($8.75MM club option for 2009)

Mark Mulder (STL) – 0-0, 10.80 ERA, 2/2 K/BB, 1.3 IP (10 IP in 2007; $11MM club option for 2009)

So are any of these guys worth even discussing for 2009? Maybe not, but I still wouldn’t be opposed to seeing Hampton (36) signed to an incentive-laden deal given our lack of left handed starting pitching. C’mon let’s keep that Braves pipeline flowing! I mean these things work out sometimes, right? Jaret Wright was a scrapheap pickup that worked for the Braves several years ago. Thoughts? Is it best to just stay away and spend spring training and minor league rosters for evaluating younger guys?

I think for my next post I’m going to look into finding the next Gavin Floyd or dare I say, the next Kyle Davies…

Five "other" offseason ideas

doublestix — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 03:51:21 -0000

Couple ideas that haven't been talked about. I will withhold my "official" opinion until a bit later.

Boof Bonser, RHP

via minnesota.twins.mlb.com

He's been pretty much banished to the bullpen with the Twinkies. Has pretty good stuff, can run it up there to 95. Had a good FIP this year despite a bloated ERA, mostly came from a very odd 57% strand rate. Probably wouldn't take much more than a mid level prospect to get. Could be a Davies like project with mid-rotation upside.

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Jeff Clement, C

via www.minorleaguebaseball.com

The Mariners have some nice catching depth and might be willing to deal from a position of depth. It might require Butler, but it may be worth it. Clement has always hit, and I believe he still holds the national high school record for home runs with 75. His defense has been called into question, but it's supposedly improved enough to where he could stick behind the dish.

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Josh Willingham, OF

via mlbplayers.mlb.com

Marlins will obviously sell off their "expensive" players, and Willingham is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter. He can hit, his average OPS the last three years has been about .840, with half his games coming at Dolphin Stadium which I believe is a pitchers park. His strikeouts went up a little this year, but his power stayed the same and he took a few more walks to keep his OBP high. Isn't that good defensively, but I don't know exactly how bad/good he is.

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Bobby Abreu, OF

via mlb.mlb.com

A lot more of the talk around here has been for Burrell, Dunn, and Rivera, but this guy might be a decent option as a free agent as well. Probably would only be an option for me if we managed to trade Guillen, because otherwise the defense would be very bad. He is not awful defensively but Abreu is a bit below average. He is durable and a good on-base guy with a little pop.

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Chris Duncan, 1B/OF

via mlb.mlb.com

With the emergence of other outfielders with the Cardinals and a pretty decent first baseman, Duncan could be traded (my speculation). I'd be looking at him as a RHP masher (he is awful against lefties, like TPJ awful) in a platoon role in the outfield (and maybe 1B or DH on occasion if necessary). I think he's pretty awkward in the outfield, but his career .282/.374/.519 line against RHP would make that tolerable. Do not know what it take to acquire him, should not be ridiculous though.

Dawja Vs. Phils Open Thread?

philofthenorth — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 00:35:17 -0000

I thought RR was going to start game threads for the divisionals. I'm up for it. ManRam just absolutely destroyed a mistake by Hamels, maybe the longest 2B I've ever seen.

If no one else is participating, I'll just hang out here in my loft (the rough equivalent of a mother's basement) and blog myself silly. Wow, Kemp has some kind of platoon split; .369 against LHP, .280 overall. I think this is 75 words now. Hot dog bun (just to be sure).

The Office- Season 5 Episode 2 Open Thread

royalsreview — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 18:32:58 -0000

Following Ryan's recent scandal at corporate, Holly must hold a business ethics seminar.

So is the guy from Mad Men gone forever now? I was really hoping the "Pam at Art School" storyline was going to develop into something interesting. As of the first episode however, all we got was two minutes of Mr. Perfect feeling annoyed, which lead to him proposing (OMG !!! they were soooo adorable!!!!). So... is she coming back to Dunder Mifflin? Will she pursue some kind of art/graphic design career? Does she still think she's good? Perhaps its just my own similarities to Pam coming out, but I feel like Pam's aspirations and frustrations are the secret core of the show, especially since Jim is now "here to stay" at DM.
Will we find out what was up with Meredith's face in the first third of last episode? Seriously, what the hell was that? I really didn't like the format of the first episode, but there is a possibility that they were spoofing/playing with the silliness of dockumentaries. Was Meredith's unexplained state just a mini-joke on the inability of a film-crew to actually explain things?
So Dwight and Angela are having sex in the warehouse (how big is this office complex?)... and... yea. So is that going anywhere?
Holly's name is apparently "Hollis".

RIP Bruce Dal Canton

trauty — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:13:37 -0000

I've read on a couple other message boards that Bruce Dal Canton (Royals 1971-75) passed away on October 7. This has been a terrible year for Royals alumni. We've never lost more than 2 ex-Royals in a single year. This marks the 5th death of 2008 (Lance Clemons, Steve Mingori, Bill Sorrell, Todd Cruz are the others).

Hopefully this will be the last one of 2008. RIP Mr. Dal Canton.

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2008-09 Rule 5 Eligibilities: The Pitchers

Royals Nation — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 23:37:13 -0000

On the second and final installment of Rule 5 Eligibilities for 2009, we focus on the pitchers eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, which will take place on the final day of the Winter Meetings in December. The performance of pitchers is obviously much more volatile than hitters, as many hard-throwing moundsmen in the low minors tend to get selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Joakim Soria, anyone? This is why I believe we must take careful consideration, while paying attention closely to scouting reports, in order to conclude which Minor League pitchers we should and should not protect.

Remember the "selectability factor", which is simply the chances they are selected in the December Rule 5 Draft. This grading is on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being highly unlikely to be taken, 3 being somewhat likely to be taken, and 5 being very likely to be taken. I will divide this into a two-part series. Let us begin with the hitters.

The complete list of Rule 5 eligible pitchers is below.

RP - Henry Barrera (Opening Day Age: 23 / T: R)

2008 Line: 2.81 ERA, 57.2 IP, 42 G, 24 BB, 78 K, 1.23 WHIP (A+ Wilmington)

Selectability Factor: 3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Barrera has posted terrific strikeout rates in every Minor League level since being drafted out of Rosemead High School in California by the Royals in 2004. He is a power reliever who can touch the mid 90's with his fastball velocity. He was a key component of the Blue Rocks' pen in '08, and seeks to move up again in '09. At the mere age of 23, he is definite power reliever/set-up man future material, and possibly future closer material. It's difficult to claim that a team will surely select him in December, but with a small market, "rebuilding" team like the Royals, erring on the side of protection is never an unsafe philosophy.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

SP - Jose Capellan (Opening Day Age: 28 / T: R)

2008 Line: 4.10 ERA, 37.1 IP, 6 G, 5 GS, 14 BB, 20 K, 1.31 WHIP (AAA Omaha)

Selectability Factor: 3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Dayton Moore and the Atlanta Brave'd Royals signed ex-Brave pitcher Capellan to a Minor League contract back in July. Capellan is a journeyman extraordinaire who has enjoyed - or not enjoyed? - stints in Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit, and most recently, Colorado. Capellan was arguably rushed through the Minors as a fairly good prospect. He possesses a mid-90's fastball, but projects as a more generic swingman in the future. The fastball could possibly increase if he moves to the bullpen. That said, I like taking chances on the Matt Wrights and Roman Colons of the world. I watched him pitch in Omaha back in July, and was impressed. He can never stay healthy, though, and he was shut down for the season with an injury in August. By golly, I can not find what the injury was, or when he'll return. I'll modify my projection if anyone can provide explanations or articles for this regard.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

SP - Luis Cota (Opening Day Age: 23 / T: R)

2008 Line: 3.55 ERA, 25.1 IP, 6 GS/G, 16 BB, 21 K, 1.58 WHIP (R+ Idaho Falls) / 5.80 ERA, 35.2 IP, 8 GS/G, 14 BB, 32 K, 1.49 WHIP (A Burlington)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Cota has mostly disappointed since being selected out of Sunnyside, California in 2004, and being ranked 6th on the organizational prospect list by Baseball America in 2005 and 2006. Cota missed the entire 2007 season to repair fraying in his shoulder from surgery, and was truly only beginning to make headway back to the organizational top prospect list in Idaho Falls (3.55 ERA in 25+ innings) before hitting a slight bump in the road at Burlington, Iowa (4 HR, 5.8 ERA in 35 IP). His K-rate improved in Burlington, but he needs to demonstrate he can at least stay healthy over the course of the season, as he missed significant time in '08 due to injuries. Who knows if Cota can ever fulfill the potential and stuff he showed in the mid-decade? One thing is for sure: He definitely needs far more seasoning - mentally and physically - before we can begin to discuss him as a Major League pitcher. Err on not protecting him this winter.

Projected 2009 Level: A

SP - Blake Johnson (Opening Day Age: 23 / T: R)

2008 Line: 4.85 ERA, 143 IP, 38 BB, 86 K, 26 G, 22 GS, 1.44 WHIP (AA NWA)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: At the beginning of the season, baseball scouts and Royals fans were raving about the talented Northwest Arkansas rotation, with Johnson as merely the #4 pitcher. Like his counterparts Rowdy Hardy and Julio Cesar Pimentel, Johnson's stock fell significantly in 2009. He possessed one of the finest curveballs in the Texas League, but must rely on location! location! location! in order to succeed at every Minor League level and earning a position on the Major League squad. As a tall, young righthander, I like his makeup, but his lack of dominance or velocity will likely deter teams from selecting him, as he is probably not ready to start at the Major League level. Keep him in the organization, but don't worry about protecting him.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

SP - Dusty Hughes (Opening Day Age: 25 / T: L)

2008 Line: 2.91 ERA, 52.2 IP, 20 G, 4 GS, 16 BB, 43 K, 1.2 WHIP (AA Northwest Arkansas) / 5.04 ERA, 55.1 IP, 12 G, 11 GS, 25 BB, 36 K, 1.63 WHIP (AAA Omaha)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: The Royals named Dusty Hughes the Wichita Wranglers Pitcher of the Year in 2007. After showing promise in NWA in the first half of the season, the short left-hander stumbled a bit in Omaha. Hughes was once heralded for his excellent control, but given his short stature and non-overpowering stuff, he will need every aspect of that control for the remainder of his career. Hughes, unfortunately, doesn't really project as anything more than a long reliever at the Major League level. However, at 5'8", he is certainly an everyman in terms of height. I am rooting for him, but I don't count on any team selecting him this winter.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

SP - Matt Kniginyzky (Opening Day Age: 26 / T: R)

2008 Line: 3.57 ERA, 141 IP, 27 GS/G, 51 BB, 113 K, 1.3 WHIP (A+ Wilmington)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Kniginyzky - whose name I have to reference every time I type it - possesses an 89-92 miles per hour fastball and a solid power curveball and changeup. He holds a fine ability to throw strikes, but his age and lack of overpowering pitches do not make him worth protecting, in my opinion. Rowdy Hardy without the pizazz and more generic stuff. He did win the Wilmington Blue Rocks Pitcher of the Year award for 2008.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

SP - Mario Santago (Opening Day Age: 24 / T: R)

2008 Line: 3.43 ERA, 141.2 IP, 27 GS/G, 39 BB, 86 K, 1.37 WHIP (A+ Wilmington)

Selectability Factor: 4 / 5 (Worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Santiago translated his excellent heat into solid pitching results for Wilmington this year. In my opinion, he should have beaten out Kniginyzky for the Pitcher of the Year at that level. His tender age and upper hand as a starting pitcher make him worth protecting, in my opinion.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

RP - Juan Abreu (Opening Day Age: 24 / T: R)

2008 Line: 3.66 ERA, 76.1 IP, 22 G, 4 GS, 42 BB, 104 K, 1.32 WHIP (A Burlington)

Selectability Factor: 3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Abreu posted an excellent season for Midwest League champion Burlington Bees in '08. He combined with Dan Duffy for a no-hitter and, according to Royals Authority, was a darkhorse candidate for the Baseball America/Midwest League Top 20 prospect list. Abreu is still rather young and possesses excellent heat. He should be worth considering for protection.

Projected 2009 Level: A+ Wilmington

RP - Greg Atencio (Opening Day Age: 27 / T: R)

2008 Line: 3.81 ERA, 54.1 IP, 27 G, 25 BB, 63 K, 1.27 WHIP (AA Northwest Arkansas) / 3.24 ERA, 25 IP, 9 G, 11 BB, 22 K, 1.44 WHIP (AAA Omaha)

Selectability Factor: 4 / 5 (Probably worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Atencio is a fairly average-sized right-hander who possesses an excellent slider and mid'90's fastball. There is every reason to believe he can translate his good control and solid strikeout rates to a middle reliever role in the big leagues next season. Atencio is Joel Peralta, part two: A late-blooming relief pitcher who relies on control, a decent fastball, the slider as his best pitch, and gives up his fair share of home runs. Atencio is worth protecting this winter.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA Omaha

RP - Kyle Crist (Opening Day Age: 25 / T: R)

2008 Line: 3.89 ERA, 74 IP, 42 G, 33 BB, 56 K, 1.35 WHIP (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: The Royals selected Crist in the 34th round in 2004. Crist is a ground ball pitcher who throws a fastball between 93 and 95 miles per hour. That said, it hasn't exactly manifested in consistently good results. His 2007 season, notably, was subpar. Don't protect him.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

RP - Gilbert De La Vara (Opening Day Age: 24 / T: L)

2008 Line: 3.65 ERA, 44.1 IP, 24 G, 12 BB, 31 K, 1.02 WHIP (A+ Wilmington) / 2.76 ERA, 32.2 IP, 21 G, 15 BB, 21 K, 1.16 WHIP

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: De La Vara was selected as a draft and follow pitcher by the Royals back in 2005. He has shown flashes of domination throughout his climb, manifesting in a terrific 2006 season split between the Carolina League and Texas League. Him being a left-hander could provide additional value, but I doubt he gets selected, based on his inconsistency. He has been assigned to the North Shore squad in the Hawaiian League.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

RP - Patrick Green (Opening Day Age: 27 / T: R)

2008 Line: 8.38 ERA, 7 G, 9.2 IP, 3 BB, 8 K, 1.76 WHIP (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 1 / 5 (Not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: The Royals selected Patrick Green from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette in 2004, but he's strictly organizational filler, at this point. He suffered with injuries in most of 2008, but managed to post a respectable 3.92 ERA in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League in '07. At age 27, whether he will even move significantly up the ladder is in serious question. Don't worry about a team selecting Patrick Green.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

RP - Chris Nicoll (Opening Day Age: 25 / T: R)

2008 Line: 2.91 ERA, 43.1 IP, 20 G, 15 BB, 49 K, 1.13 WHIP (A+ Wilmington) / 3.09 ERA, 43.2 IP, 19 G, 8 BB, 55 K, 1.17 WHIP (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Nicoll has worked his way steadily up the organizational ladder since being selected in the third round by the Royals in 2005. Nonetheless, Nicoll faltered horribly in 2007, but bounced back nicely in 2008. Baseball America ranked Nicoll as possessing the best control prior to the 2006 season. Nicoll is a quick worker who changed pitches effectively in '07, but does not possess overpowering stuff. He is worth considering, but let's be blunt: I'm not exactly worried about losing him, because I'm skeptical he'll make it through May on any 25-man roster, even Washington's.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

RP - Jarod Plummer (Opening Day Age: 25 / T: R)

2008 Line: 4.19 ERA, 29 G, 58 IP, 15 BB, 65 K, 1.24 WHIP (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting)

RN Perspective: The Royals acquired Jarod Plummer from the Los Angeles Dodgers in a trade during Spring Training in 2006. He works with a moderate fastball that tops out in the low 90's. He also possesses an above-average slider and splitter. The Royals have opted not to retain him the previous two offseasons. We'll see how it shakes out, this time around. I'm still not counting on him being protected, but he continues to post solid results as he works his way up the organizational ladder.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

Dayton Moore Advocates Change! (Part Deux)

Royals Nation — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:41:30 -0000

Dick Kaegel's latest royals.com article expands on Dayton Moore and his promise of change for the current offseason. Below are some major points that Moore makes.

The Royals are not prepared to move Soria to the rotation for this season. There are some members from within the organization who advocate for doing so, but Moore holds the final vote, and Soria stays in the bullpen.
The Royals are currently having conversations with other clubs to see which players might be available.
We are seeking to upgrade every position on the field.
Upgrading the middle infield is not the highest priority. "If we had to begin the season tomorrow with Mike Aviles, Callaspo, [Tony] Pena and [Esteban] German as our middle-infield candidates, we are pleased with that," says Moore.
We are preparing lists, doing background work, and beginning the interview process for replacements at hitting coach and third base coach.
We are looking for upgrades offensively - preferably a 3 or 4 hole hitter, but realistically just a generic upgrade offensively, since a 3 or 4 hole acquisition likely won't happen.

It appears as if Soria will remain in the bullpen for the season. The Tony Pena, Jr. comment, specifically, worries me to no avail. We should not begin the season with Ross Gload, Joey Gathright, or Tony Pena on our roster, period.

Is this discussion of 'change' merely a farce, or will Moore actually carry through?

Meet Josh Bard, or Yes, the Market for John Buck Insurance is That Limited

Gopherballs — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:26:11 -0000

As expected, the San Diego Padres non-tendered catcher Josh Bard, making him an unrestricted free agent. With San Diego the last three seasons, Bard had tremendous success as a semi-regular in 2006 (partially with Boston where he infamously struggled catching Tim Wakefield’s knuckler), a good year as a regular in 2007 (San Diego), and a horrible, injury-filled season in 2008:

2006 Age 28 (284 PA) 333/404/502 .410 wOBA

2007 Age 29 (443 PA) 285/364/404 .344 wOBA

2008 Age 30 (178 PA) 202/279/270 .255 wOBA

Career 265/333/395

For those who only look at the most recent season’s results, you can stop reading now. For everyone else, Bard has very good plate discipline for a catcher and acceptable power. Bard spent half his playing time the last three years at Petco, an extreme pitcher’s park, which makes his 2006 and 2007 more impressive, and his 2008 more explainable. His 2008 stats were also hurt by severe bad luck – despite a healthy line drive rate of 21.6%, his BABIP was .230 (about .100 below his expected BABIP). Moving to the American League would hurt his stats, but the move away from Petco (career 245/346/366) would more than offset that.

Bard, who turns 31 before next opening day, probably will never come close to repeating his 2006 and is not good enough to start 135 games each year, but he is a good bet to bounce back and hit well enough to play regularly in a Gregg Zaun role. He is a switch hitter, and while he historically has been better from the right side (career 288/341/443), he is adequate from the left side for a catcher (256/330/376). Defensively, he has problems with the running game, but more importantly, does fine with blocking balls. He made $2.2 million last year, and considering he just cleared waivers after the Padres took him off their 40-man roster, he likely will sign in the $1-$2 million range next season. Bard would represent an immediate upgrade over Miguel Olivo and could serve as a stopgap starter if John Buck does not rebound from his lousy 2008.

OT: Vote for Mustache of the Year to benefit Challenger Baseball

kcisbetterthanstlateverything — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:31:22 -0000

Although this may benefit the St. Louis area Challenger program, it is still a good cause. Challenger baseball is Mark Teahen's preferred charity and community service organization in the Kansas City area. What better way to show your support for bringing baseball to the lives of the disabled than voting for the mustache of the year? (Unrelated? Uh...yeah, but laughs are good too)

Story here:

http://www.kctv5.com/news/17637698/detail.html

Vote here:

http://www.americanmustacheinstitute.org/MustacheAmericanOfYear.aspx

Best Royals mustache of all time...vote now!!!

Bret Saberhagen

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Dennis Leonard

via www.joesportsfan.com

Frank White

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Dan Quisenberry

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Al Hrabosky

via www.hollywoodcollectibles.com

Steve Balboni

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Amos Otis

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Tony Pena

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Vote or die

Poll

Who has the best mustache in the history of the Royals?

Tradeable Commodities

SittinByTheFoulPole — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:07:15 -0000

I know the GMDM article in the Star yesterday is already being discussed in another post, but I'm hoping the subject matter discussed here is different enough to not seem redundant. The article seemed to indicate that GMDM won’t have much $ to spend in the free agent market this offseason so any impactful moves seem likely to come via trade. However, I just don’t see GMDM and his win now (and later) and "pitching is the currency of baseball" philosophy trading Zack or Soria or Meche - nor does JoPo, it would seem. So do we have any truly tradeable commodities that could net an impactful player at the major league level in 2009? Let’s look.

1. David DeJesus – outside of Zack and the Mexicutioner, it would seem that DJ is the most valuable commodity. He’s coming off of a career year (not that he blew previous years’ numbers out of the water, but…). DJ hit .307/.366/.452/.818 with an OPS+ of 114. That’s good for anyone and it’s great for a CF. He can lead-off, hit well against lefties or righties (he’s a career .294 hitter against RHP and a career .272 hitter against LHP = solid), and best of all he’s signed way below league average for 3 more years (the final year being a club option). CF is a demanding position and several high power teams will be looking to upgrade in CF this offseason (Yankees, Cubs, Braves, etc). As much as I hate to say it, it might be time to sell high on David. He’s been somewhat injury prone throughout his career. It would seem that Mitch Maier possesses many of the same skills and is currently cheaper, faster, and better defensively than David. But we really have no clue what Mitch can do as an everyday major leaguer.

Conclusion: Listen to all offers for DJ this offseason (and I would think there will be several). If he can bring back one major league ready positional upgrade* (MIF, C, OF, 1B) and one or two solid AA or AAA (or high ceiling low) prospects, I think you move him.

*Incoming player X has to be a reasonably established upgrade at a position of need (i.e. Robinson Cano, Max Ramirez, Mike Theriot).

2. Hiram Kyle Davies – is it possible that HKD built himself some trade value with his strong finish to 2008? My guess is any 24 year old starting pitcher with his “stuff” has some value. And actually getting some major league hitters out can only enhance it. The real question is, does Kyle have more value to the Royals as a possible solid #3 or #4 starter in 2009 or would this be considered selling high in anticipation of the inconsistent Kyle (GD-it, KYLE!) returning? And what could we get for Kyle? Would a pitching starved organization like the Rangers accept a deal of Davies and a minor league pitcher (Pimental?) for one of their catchers not named Laird? I’m still not a Hiram-believer (I’m more of a Hiram-hoper) so I’d certainly listen.

Conclusion: Think hard about selling high on Kyle. He’s very young, durable, talented and under team control for several more years. Teams will overpay for pitching, no? My guess is there’s potential Davies could net the Rs a piece of the 2009 major league puzzle, but it’d have to be a good piece since he’s likely to be a part of the 2009 rotation as we stand today.

3. Ron Mahay – Ron had a stellar 2/3 of a season, then got hurt and struggled down the stretch. Still, I think Ron is valued fairly highly as a rare established lefty vet in the pen who can get both lefties and righties out. He’s in the final year of a 2 year deal, receiving $4M in 2009. Ron was a much talked about commodity at the 2008 trade deadline, but nothing came of it. Doesn’t mean GMDM won’t receive a few calls this offseason about Ron. Thing is, what can you realistically hope to get for a 37 year-old (he’ll turn 38 mid year in 2009) reliever with one year left on his deal? This past July the Marlins acquired Arthur Rhodes for minor league RHP Gaby Hernandez; last December Milwaukee Acquired RHP Salomon Torres from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Marino Salas and RHP Kevin Roberts. At the trade deadline in 2007 we all know what Octavio Dotel (a 2-month rental) brought us. I know, I know… Dotel had that magical dollar sign associated with being a “closer.”

Conclusion: Chances are trading Mahay does not help the 2009 club. It seems he would bring a high minor league B or C prospect at best. I’m not sure this is the way Dayton wants to go. If he really thinks competing in 2009 in an option, I would think you keep Mahay and explore flipping him at the deadline.

4. Alex Gordon/Billy Butler – I don’t like the idea of looking to trade either of these guys simply because you’re selling low… way low, I hope. It sounds like Gordon especially still has value around the league, but how does removing one of our supposed “cornerstones” (at least offensively) help the future of the organization? I don’t know if it would be possible to pull a Delmon Young for Matt Garza type of trade this offseason, but I somehow doubt it. Delmon had a solid rookie campaign. Gordon and Butler are coming off of two unspectacular (probably somewhere between solid and mediocre, but a lot closer to mediocre) seasons.

Conclusion: I think Gordon has to stay and I’m with some of you who have suggested locking him up while his value is low. He’s a local (sort of) kid and it’s not hard to see him becoming a perennial all-star and who should be league average for his position at worst. Now, if someone wants to offer up a stud pitcher or stud OF for Billy, I think you consider it seriously. I’d love, love, love for Bam Bam to rake for the Royals for the next 5-10 (to 20) years, but it doesn’t look good for him to ever hold down a position defensively. DH has to be the easiest position to fill through free-agency… (or maybe Kila Monster profiles there if we find a legit 1B or if Shealy somehow becomes a viable option). I think flipping Billy for a legit position player or starting pitcher just makes sense. Now, how realistic it is, I’m not sure.

I had thought about including Leo Nunez and Ram Ram here, but they sort of fit in the Mahay category (not as established certainly, but can you really expect to get equal value for a relief pitcher who has not closed ballgames? My guess is no unless you’re willing to accept A or AA talent.) And then there’s Jose Guillen. I’d love to send JoGui packing. Not even because of his anemic OBP (although that drives me crazy!!), but because for all his “passion,” I don’t see him solidifying a clubhouse; quite the opposite. He’s rarely played on a winner (and he’s had his chances playing for a third of baseball). The one true winning organization he played for kicked his @ss out of the post season. Anyway, to trade Jose now would mean accepting $0.50 on the dollar and unless you’ve got some defunct junk bonds, that’s probably not a winning proposition. I’d still listen (maybe Seattle wants him back), but my guess is the Rs would end up eating half of his salary (at least) and that still handcuffs us with no obvious choice around to step into a corner OF position. (I was going to say “no one else around to pick up the run production,” but I’d argue that Alex Gordon or Billy Butler would have had nearly as many RBIs if they were batting 4th all year – which is why we all know RBIs are a lousy stat.)

Sadly, I see the above as the extent of our “valuable” commodities if Donald Zachary, Soria, and Meche are excluded. At the high minor league level, even Carlos Rosa has a seemingly serious injury to battle with this offseason leaving only Dan Cortes as a realistic trade possibility (with any value).

What have I missed? Am I completely off-base here? Bring on the thoughts of the RR faithful!

(I apologize for the crappy formatting)

The 100 Greatest Royals of All-Time - #43 Doug Bird

RoyalsRetro — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:39:12 -0000

The Bird is the word! At #43, Royals pitcher Doug Bird.

Today there is a lot of talk about whether to keep Joakim Soria as the closer, or move him to the rotation. Although Dan Quisenberry and Jeff Montgomery never started a game for the Royals, many good Royals relievers did make the transition, with varying results. One such pitcher who was probably better off remaining in the pen was Doug Bird.

Bird was a Southern California kid, taken in the third round pick by the Royals in the June Secondary Phase of the draft in 1969. He had plans to instead head to USC or UCLA to play college ball, but was convinced by a Royals scout named Spider Jorgensen (later his manager in rookie ball), that he would get to the big leagues quickly with an expansion team like the Royals.

Just a year into his professional career, it looked like Bird would have to put baseball on hold to serve his country in Vietnam.

"I got a notice to report for a physical and immediate induction into the Army. Then somebody blew up the draft board in South Pasadena. All the paperwork went up in smoke. By the time they got everything straightened out, they had switched over to a lottery system where they drew lots with birthdates on them. My number was up in the 280s, and they never called me.

If I knew who blew up the draft board, I'd thank him, cause otherwise I'd have been gone. End of baseball career."

Bird was used primarily as a starter in the minor leagues, posting a 1.84 ERA in 22 games in 1970 with Waterloo (but finishing with an 11-9 record!) and winning fifteen games the next season in San Jose. At the end of the 1972 season he was promoted to AAA Omaha, where he pitched out of the pen for seven ballgames. After four relief appearances in Omaha to start the 1973 season, the Royals called up him up to the big leagues to pitch out of their pen.

Gene Garber had been the most called upon late inning Royals reliever to begin the year, racking up a few saves along the way. Manager Jack McKeon found his 1.21 ERA to be too valuable to be used in the pen, so he called on Garber start some games in May and June. Garber tossed two complete game victories, then was shelled in his next two starts.

Bird was used sparingly in the pen at first, but by June 6, had had posted a 1.99 ERA in 22 2/3 innings of work. McKeon was now using Bird in many close games, often times in save situations. This was in the days before Tony LaRussa had institutionalized the "closer" position, so many of these saves were more than an inning of work. And there was not really a designated "closer". Save opportunities went to Bird, Garber (who was now back in the pen), Bruce Dal Canton, Joe Hoerner - whoever had the hot hand. The best reliever was instead known as a "fireman", a guy who could come into a tight situation, ninth inning or otherwise, and put out a fire. Bird was McKeon's most trusted fireman, and along the way got a bulk of the save opportunities.

"So the manager, Jack McKeon, made me the closer. Nobody asked me, but it was okay. I preferred it to doing nothing for four days between starts."

That season the Royals enjoyed their first ever winning season, with Doug Bird leading the team in saves with twenty. It was the second most ever in a season by a Royals pitcher, and stood as the franchise record for saves by a rookie reliever until Mike MacDougal in 2003. Bird led Royals relievers with a 2.99 ERA and fifty-four appearances, despite spending the first month of the season in Omaha.

Most Saves in a Career, Royals History
Jeff Montgomery 1988-1999 - 304
Dan Quisenberry 1979-1988 - 238
Joakim Soria 2007-2008 - 59
Doug Bird 1973-1978 - 58
Roberto Hernandez 2001-2002 - 54

In 1974, Bird was again the primary fireman in the pen, but racked up just ten saves. Why? Royals starters finished fifty-four complete games, twenty coming from Steve Busby. Bird would again lead Royals relievers in ERA at 2.73 and appearances with fifty-five. McKeon even let him start a game in the last week of the season and Bird went the distance in a 2-1 loss.

By 1975 the Royals were looking to contend, but by July they were barely over .500. On July 23, they fired McKeon and hired former Rangers manager Whitey Herzog. The club got red hot over August and closed what had been an eleven game lead by Oakland to just five by September 6. Bird had been the most frequently used reliever throughout the year, collecting eleven saves along the way. Nonetheless, Whitey had Bird start the second game of a crucial doubleheader that day against the Angels. Bird responded with seven plus innings and the win, completing the sweep and drawing the Royals to within four and half games of Oakland. Bird would start three more games down the stretch, but would fail to build upon his success. The Royals would fail to catch the A's, although they did enjoy their best season ever with ninety-one wins and a second place finish.

Bird began 1976 in the pen, but May he was back in the rotation.

"I wasn't as strong as I should have been. I'd begin to fade about the sixth inning."

It didn't help that Whitey drove Bird pretty hard, as he did with all his pitchers. Bird made twenty-seven starts, and went at least eight innings in eight of those starts, including a ten inning affair against Milwaukee. Despite the long outings, Bird continued to exhibit masterful control, going 46 2/3 consecutive innings in July without yielding a walk, a team record. Bird finished the year with a 12-10 record and a 3.37 ERA in 197 2/3 innings of work. In thirty-eight games, he walked just thirty-one batters. He pitched in relief in the American League Championships Series, picking up the win in Game Four.

Whitey had Bird pitch out of the pen most of 1977, with spot starts along the way. It was clear where Bird was more effective. He posted a 2.61 ERA as a reliever and a 9.55 ERA in five starts. He led the team with fourteen saves and fifty-three appearances. In the playoffs, he appeared in three games in relief without giving up a run.

In 1978 Whitey had an experienced pen full of colorful characters. Steve Mingori was the loony lefty. Al "The Mad Hungarian" Hrabosky was known for his wild antics on the mound. Marty Pattin was known for cracking up his teammates with his "Donald Duck" impression. And then there was Doug Bird. Whitey affectionately labeled the foursome "Mungo, Hungo, Duck and the Bird." Although the other three put together the foundation for a solid pen, Bird struggled through his worst season in Kansas City, compiling a 5.29 ERA.

For the third straight year, the Royals faced the Yankees in the playoffs. The teams split the first two, and the Royals were leading the pivotal Game Three by a score of 5-4 in the eighth inning thanks to three George Brett home runs. Paul Splittorff retired the first hitter in the eighth before allowing a single to Roy White. Whitey brought in Bird to relieve. After falling behind 2-0, Bird offered up a fastball to Yankees catcher Thurman Munson that ended up 420 feet away from home plate, over the left centerfield wall.

"The story of my year. I knew he hit it good. I didn't even bother to watch."

That was the final straw for Bird in Kansas City. At the end of spring training of 1979, the Royals dealt Bird to Philadelphia for shortstop prospect Todd Cruz. Bird would bounce from the Phillies to the Yankees to the Cubs to the Red Sox.

"The Cubs made me a starter again. In my last start in '82, I tried to score from second on a hit. I collided with the catcher, flipped up in the air and came down on my right shoulder. That winter they traded me to the Red Sox. The shoulder didn't feel right. I had some good days, some bad. They talked about an operation, but I was 33. There would be a year of rehab. It wasn't worth it to me. So I quit."

Doug Bird was a solid reliever, but his stuff was so good it was worth seeing if he could contribute as a starter. Somehow, those teams back in the 70s were able to win without a ninth inning "closer." I don't know whether Joakim Soria is good enough to become a solid starting pitcher, but the Royals should not be afraid of finding out.

Aviles and PrOPS

ZeppelinDZ — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:03:25 -0000

I thought about just adding a comment to the Aviles/Sickels thread, but as I think Mike Aviles will be the single most talked about person this off-season for RR, I wanted this to be a new post.

So, a lot of you read my look at xBABIP and the royals, but a central theme about some comments was what it really means. When comparing actual versus expected values, how does that translate to more traditional stats which actually tell you about on-field performance. i.e. what does a BABIP-xBABIP of .60 mean?

Enter PrOPS (I'm gonna call it props to save wear and tear on my shift key). Props is short for predictive OPS. It was developed by economist JC Bradbury a couple years ago. Basically, it takes a bunch of peripheral rate stats and turns them into a luck neutral, semi-park neutral OPS number. here is the article introducing it.

It seems the exact formula is proprietary as far as I can tell, I have tried to reverse engineer it and have a working version w/o park factors, but since THT
reports the stat, its easy to look up. Now, I really like the concept of this. Its not perfect, but as a normalizing agent, it is my favorite stat I have found to see true performance.

Props isn't necessarily a predictive stat. However, if you can forecast the components that make up the calculation, it can be used in a way. I might do a little of that over the off-season.

Now, I said this post was about Mike Aviles, but I'm gonna be really quick on his analysis.

2008 props: .737

OPS - PrOPS = .096

that .096 would be the largest difference of ANY qualified batter this year.

Is a 740 OPS bad for a middle infielder? no. Can he improve? sure, but here are the fundamental components of OPS, which ones do you think he gets better at for his age 28 2009 season? What about a year of bad luck or a sophomore slump?

Line drives per batted ball
Groundball-to-flyball ratio
Walk rate
Hit-by-pitch rate
Strikeout rate
Home run rate
Home park of the player

I have said this about a dozen times now, I hope Aviles proves me wrong, but the 2009 Mark Quinn award seems well within reach.

P.S. for good news. props like gordon, dejesus, and shealy

Moore article in the Star

gordonrules — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 03:50:16 -0000

Nice article in the star today about GMDM. I found a couple of things interesting. #1 being we don't have the payroll flexibility like we have had the last 2 years. Dayton sounded like we wouldn't be trying to sign any of the big name free agents. So those of you who were hoping for Dunn, doesn't sound like its going to happen. Also Dayton said " looking at it (the free agent market) right now, I think we'd probably be looking more at trying to do those things through trades." Hello Andrew Jones. He also mentions that alot of our players can play multiple positions so that gives him more options when thinking about acquiring a player. Lastly, GMDM says the royals are going to give up on Teahen, " we still have a lot of faith in Mark as a player." So it sounds like Mark will be back. Hopefully as a utility player. Lots of interesting stuff to talk about here. Glad to read something Royals related.

Soren Petro's discussion of Royals payroll - 10-02-08

loyal2sdad — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 15:27:13 -0000

Anybody else listen to Soren yesterday?

He summed up some data on payroll for playoff teams vs non-playoff teams, league avg payrolls, etc.

The conclusion of his point was that the Royals need to be aiming for a $100 million payroll within a year or two if they hoped to contend. He pointed out that they are essentially going into a "new" ballpark, with the expected revenue bump, etc.

I tend to agree with him - but I know what David Glass' response would be. Remember, Moore said he needed attendance to be 2.5 million in order for the Royals to afford a $70 million payroll. Petro ripped that comment to shreds, pointing out that 2.5 million attendance would be a franchise record, and $70 million would be FAR below the avg playoff team payroll, as well as the avg team payroll overall. (This was true even after throwing out the high and low "outliers").

Yes, I know you can win with a small payroll, ala Tampa Bay, if you manage your system nearly perfectly. I just think the Royals need to bump their payroll up substantially, at least for the next few seasons, until the farm system is deep enough to support a lower major league payroll.

Thoughts?

2008-09 Rule 5 Eligibilities: The Offense

Royals Nation — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:42:48 -0000

This is the first installment of Rule 5 Eligibilities. On Royals Nation, I compiled a list of players in the Royals organization who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason. The 2008 Rule 5 Draft will take place on Thursday, December 11, the final day of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada. For those of us still unfamiliar with the rules surrounding the Rule 5 draft, they are as follows:

As in the amateur draft, the selection order of the teams is based on each team's win-loss record from the prior regular season, each round starting with the team with the worst record and proceeding in order to the team with the best record. Any player selected under Rule 5 is immediately added to his new team's 40-man roster; thus, teams who do not have an available roster spot may not participate in the Rule 5 draft. Players who are not currently on their team's 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, but only after a standard exemption period has elapsed. See Exemptions to Selection Eligibility below.

If chosen in the Rule 5 draft, a player must be kept on the selecting team's 25-man major league roster for the entire season after the draft--he may not be optioned or designated to the minors. The selecting team may, at any time, waive the Rule 5 draftee. If a Rule 5 draftee clears waivers by not signing with a new MLB team, he must be offered back to the original team, effectively canceling the Rule 5 draft choice. Once a Rule 5 draftee spends an entire season on his new team's 25-man roster, his status reverts to normal and he may be optioned or designated for assignment.

To prevent the abuse of the Rule 5 draft, the rule also states that the draftee must be active for at least 90 days. This keeps teams from drafting players, then placing them on the disabled list for the majority of the season. For example, if a Rule 5 draftee was only active for 67 days in his first season with his new club, he must be active for an additional 23 games in his second season to satisfy the Rule 5 requirements.

Any player chosen in the Rule 5 draft may be traded to any team while under the Rule 5 restrictions, but the restrictions transfer to the new team. If the new team does not want to keep the player on its 25-man roster for the season, he must be offered back to the team of which he was a member when chosen in the draft.

Exemptions to Selection Eligibility

Players signed at age 19 or older are exempt from the Rule 5 draft for three years after being drafted (in the amateur draft) or signed by their current organization; players drafted or signed at age 18 or younger are exempt for four years. For example, players drafted in 2005 (or later) at age 19 (or older) will be exempt from the 2007 Rule 5 draft, as will players drafted in 2004 (or later) at age 18 (or younger).

The exemption periods were extended by one year in October 2006 as part of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The change took effect immediately, exempting many players from the 2006 Rule 5 draft even though they had been signed in some cases more than four years before the new agreement came into effect. Prior to the rule change, players were exempt for two or three years after the year they were signed (regardless of the year they were drafted), rather than three or four years.

Now for the Royals organizational eligiblities. I have included some general/personal information about the player, vital 2008 statistics, and the "selectability factor", which is simply the chances they are selected in the December Rule 5 Draft. This grading is on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being highly unlikely to be taken, 3 being somewhat likely to be taken, and 5 being very likely to be taken. I will divide this into a two-part series. Let us begin with the hitters.

C - Adam Donachie (Opening Day Age: 25 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .212/.310/.299/.609, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 91 G, 308 PA, 3.27 RC/G (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability factor: 1 / 5 (Not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Donachie was selected two years ago in the Rule 5 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. However, he was returned to the Royals in Spring Training. Donachie was one of the infamous 2003 $1,000 signees by Baird and the Glass family. Suffice it to say, he has not exactly exceeded expectations in the Minor League system. If Donachie chooses to, he can declare himself a Minor League free agent. It's difficult for me to believe he would be signed elsewhere. Any other organization would likely place him in a similar situation as the Royals - a part-time Minor League catcher. The Royals have almost zero catching depth in their Minor League system, so it would be telling if Donachie chooses to remain a Royal. He is fine defensively, but is so woeful offensively that he's reduced to merely a footnote on the Minor League organizational depth chart.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

C - Jeff Howell (Opening Day Age: 25 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .259/.323/.385/.708, 6 HR, 44 RBI, 85 G, 316 PA, 4.16 RC/G (A+ Wilmington)

Selectability Factor: 1 / 5 (Not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Howell wil likely platoon with catcher Adam Donachie in Northwest Arkansas in 2008. After toiling in the Royals Minor League system with mostly mediocre results, he actually exceeded many people's expectations in 2008. That said, he is definitely not worth retaining on a 40-man roster. Even if another Peter Angelos-esque Baltimore Orioles squad swoops from out of nowhere to select him, their chances to retain him even as a backup are almost zero.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

C - Brayan Pena (Opening Day Age: 26 / B-T: S/R)

2008 Line: .303/.376/.462/.838, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 60 G, 266 PA, 5.96 RC/G (AAA Omaha) / .286/.333/.357, 4-for-14 (MLB Atlanta)

Selectability Factor: 5 / 5 (Worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Pena was a brilliant, under-the-radar waiver acquisition by Dayton Moore, who selected him in June. Pena projects most likely as a backup catcher given his lack of power. However, his contract rate in the Minors has been excellent over the previous four years, as evidenced by the fact that he struck out merely 17 times in 60 games last year in Omaha. Pena is also a bit quick on the basepaths (7 stolen bases in 10 attempts). I ike Pena, and believe he's essentially a catching version of Alberto Callaspo, except with better speed and athleticism. Place Brayan Pena not only on the 40-man roster in December, but let him compete with John Buck for the starting catching slot in Spring Training.

Projected 2009 Level: MLB

C - Kiel Thibault (Opening Day Age: 25 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .160/.196/.220/.416, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 31 G, 1.46 RC/G (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 1 / 5 (Not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Suffice it to say, Thibault will likely only return to the Royals organization in 2009 in an extremely limited role. Thibault raked in the Pioneer League his rookie season (in 2005, he hit .310/.338/.593/.981 in Idaho Falls), but has mostly disappointed since. At age 25, he is Minor League filler at the absolute best.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

1B - Mike Stodolka (Opening Day Age: 27 / B-T: L/L)

2008 Line: .286/.366/.405/.771, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 75 G, 259 PA, 5.49 RC/G (AAA Omaha)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Stodolka has performed admirably in the Royals Minor League system after busting and getting derailed with injuries as a pitcher. Selected in the first round of the 2000 draft, Stodolka is used to riding buses instead of flying in airplanes by now, as he will enter his tenth season in the Minor Leagues in April. Stodolka's time as a Royal might be through, though. He can declare himself a Minor League Free Agent if he so chooses. Stodolka was relocated to a corner outfield position because of the presence of Omaha Royals DH/first basemen Ryan Shealy, Kila Kaaihue, and Billy Butler, who ranked much higher on the organizational depth chart. Stodolka performed horribly defensively in the outfield, as was to be expected, but performed decently offensively, given the circumstances. His contact rate has remained tolerable of his three seasons as a hitter in the organization, but 42 strikeouts in 259 plate appearances is still a bit high. As a first baseman, he possesses too little power to hold a Major League role for any period of time. He may get a few call-up stints here and there throughout his career, but he is likely not worth protecting. In December, he may still be selected, though, as an emergency bench bat.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

2B - Josh Johnson (Opening Day Age: 23 / B-T: S/R)

2008 Line: .253/.399/.337/.736, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 118 G, 459 PA, 4.64 RC/G (A+ Wilmington)

Selectability Factor: 1 / 5 (Not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Plate discipline and versatility on the infield have been Johnson's only defiant strengths, thus far, rising up the organizational ladder. He possesses little extra base power, but is still only 23. Johnson will likely begin next year in Springdale, Arkansas, and I'm anxious to see what the switch-hitter can deliver in the Texas League. That said, he is definitely not worth protecting, although he could still develop power with age, which will complement his on-base skills nicely.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

UT - Irving Falu (Opening Day Age: 25 / B-T: S/R)

2008 Line: .301/.367/.384/.751, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 101 G, 405 PA, 4.93 RC/G (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Falu, a Royals 21st round amateur draft pick out of Indian Hills Community College, enjoyed a career season at the plate in 2008. He was allocated defensively, even beyond the likes of what superutilityman Esteban German has seen in recent Royal years. Falu played eight different positions in '08 - including designated hitter - and performed decently at all. He possesses little power at all, but given his 2008 surge, is likely worth keeping in the Minor League system as a starter for '09, at the upper levels which otherwise lack depth in talent. That said, he probably is not worth protecting on the 40-man roster, as he is still miles from a mentionable prospect.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

SS - Chris McConnell (Opening Day Age: 23 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .252/.333/.325/.658, 1 HR, 34 RBI, 120 G, 529 PA, 3.45 RC/G (A+ Wilmington)

Selectability Factor: 1 / 5 (Not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Defense is McConnell's prime strength, as he was named the organizational player with best defensive skills by Baseball America prior to the 2008 season. That said, his sole strength went southbound considerably last year, as he committed 28 errors in '08, culminating in a mere .950 fielding percentage. Not brilliant numbers to define a defensiveman, sure, but they are cause for concern, nonetheless. He possesses at least some raw speed, at least enough to compliment the entire lineup of Juan Pierres and Chone Figginses they fielded in Delaware last season. There is no way McConnell gets selected in December, for reasons obvious to anyone who watched a Blue Rocks game last season.

Projected 2009 Level: A+

3B - Edward Lucas (Opening Day Age: 26 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .304/.372/.415/.787, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 79 G, 303 PA, 5.64 RC/G (AA Northwest Arkansas) / .128/.241/.128/.369, 6-for-47, 0 HR (AAA Omaha)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: Lucas, an eighth round draft pick in 2004 out of Dartmouth College, defied the Royals' scouts impressions and posted excellent offensive results in 2008 in Northwest Arkansas. He will likely continue his newly established career as a part-time Minor Leaguer in 2009. Actually, he could gain more playing time if no first base or third base frontrunner emerges in Northwest Arkansas or Omaha. However, he struggled mightily after getting promoted to Omaha in August, looking completely overmatched at the plate. Lucas doesn't project as a major leaguer, as he's a corner infielder without enough power. He is close enough to deserve an extended glance as a protectee, but will likely not get selected in December.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

LF - Chris Lubanski (Opening Day Age: 24 / B-T: L/L)

2008 Line: .242/.306/.448/.754, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 116 G, 438 PA, 4.79 RC/G (AAA Omaha)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: The raw power is still there, and Lubanski could still enjoy a Major League career as a stopgap corner outfielder or platoon player, but his contract rate and strikeout rate have fallen to such woeful levels in the Minor Leagues the last two years, that it's easy to understand why the Royals would not protect him this winter. He was - somewhat justifiably, at the time, in my opinion - upset the Royals didn't protect him last winter, and it definitely showed. How motivated he was to whiff an appalling 130 times in 116 games last year. He will always strike out waaaay too much (he has topped 91 strikeouts in every year in the organization except 2003). Very little speed and very little outfield range give him less projectability in the wide confines of Kauffman Stadium. Another non-protection candidate this winter.

Projected 2009 Level: AAA

CF - Jose Duarte (Opening Day Age: 24 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .250/.313/.350/.663, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 28/36 SBR, 133 G, 585 PA, 3.86 RC/G (AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 3 / 5 (Maybe worth protecting / Maybe not)

RN Perspective: Duarte's two defining strengths, at this point, are speed and an ability to play center field. The Texas League is always a hitter's league, and it's tough to get enthusiastic about a .663 OPS from an age 23 (a typical AA age) player at that level. Duarte should repeat the level in 2009 and prove that he's worth keeping. However - and this is worth considering - he does possess raw talent and tools on the baseaths and in the field. He's a poor man's Joey Gathright, and that might force teams to take a gander at him in December. It's debatable whether he's worth devoting a roster spot to simply because of his ceiling and tools. Scouts love the guy.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

RF - Brian McFall (Opening Day Age: 25 / B-T: R/R)

2008 Line: .241/.329/.454/.783, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 7/6 SBR, 106 G, 404 PA, 4.95 RC/G(AA Northwest Arkansas)

Selectability Factor: 2 / 5 (Probably not worth protecting)

RN Perspective: McFall has struck out way too often while climbing up the organizational ladder. He possesses raw power, but not enough to make him anything more than a C prospect. He probably isn't worth considering, because even if he gets selected, I'm sure no club will tolerate a .220/.290/.400 role, even from the bench. Let him master the TL, and see how he can perform in Omaha.

Projected 2009 Level: AA

In conclusion, it's fairly evident that there isn't much organizational depth at the top rings of the Minor League system. Plenty of toolsy players - read: speed! - and C prospects, but little else. The only player definitely worth protecting is Brayan Pena, who I'm convinced could post a .280/.350/.420 line in the big leagues, like, right now.

Join Rule 5 Eligibilities next week, as we assess a slightly brighter spot, the pitching!

Mike Moustakas = Prince Fielder? Corey Patterson? Steve Lomasney?

jackie ballgame — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 14:49:28 -0000

Where have you gone Steve Lomasney? Or Julio Ramirez? Or Brad Nelson? These guys, as teenagers in the Midwest League finished ahead of Moustakas in isolated power (ISO), per this article. The all time leader in that category? Alex Rodriguez. But look who is second—Corey Patterson, who also happens to be just behind Moustakas in homers-hit-by-teenagers-in-the-Midwest-League (HHBTML). When I was living in Chicago (okay, I didn’t live IN Chicago, I lived NEAR Chicago, but we all liked to tell people we lived IN Chicago), all anyone could talk about circa 2001 was Corey Patterson. Even non-baseball fans. People talked about him even more than Mike Ditka. Now I see why. Not only was he a base-thief, but as a fuzzy adolescent, he hit the ball with authority. Put it this way: Moustakas—who made Baseball America’s second team as a 3B (I believe)—had an ISO of .196. Not shabby. Corey Patterson’s ISO at the same stage of development, was 76 points higher. Good god, that man-child was a monster. Imagine how excited you would have been to have Patterson prowling the farm? And how disappointed two, three, four years after his major league debut?

Baseball can be so cruel.

Of course, Prince Fielder is also among the HHBTML leaders, so keep your powder dry.