In the process of trying to say everything that can be said about the Crisp trade, I'm afraid we've hit a problem.  A big problem.  Is Crisp really better than Teahen?  I know we all think so, but can we twist up some numbers that will look definitive on the subject?  If anyone would want to invest time into this, it would be someone here at RR.

The problem stems from three premises:

(1): A player's value is equal to a sum of his offensive and defensive contributions

(2): Teahen and Crisp are roughly equally valuable offensively--perhaps a slight edge to Teahen

(3): The best defensive stats out there (none are great) peg both Teahen and Crisp as slighly better than league average defensively at their respective positions

So if we look at just that, we're pretty much forced to say that Crisp isn't an improvement over Teahen.  And we feel cantankerous.  But then we remember!  Crisp plays center field while Teahen plays right field!  And we all know center field is a more premium defensive position!

So we rejoice, and we exclaim, "Yes, they two are even, but Crisp is More Premium!"  But then we remember that we wanted a number, and "More Premium" is better suited to meats than cereals. 

So now we ask, "How much is average center field defense worth?  How much is average right field defense worth?"  I know people have asked these questions before.  Tom Tango came up with a system of positional adjustments to get at the relative values between positions.  I've seen his system used by a few analysts lately, but I'm not a fan.  He comes up with his values by looking at how a player's performance relative to the average changes when that player switches positions.  For example, if DDJ is 5 plays below the average defense in center field, but 10 plays better than the average defense in left field, this might indicate that the average defense in center field is 15 plays better than the average defense in left field.  I don't like it--who's to say DDJ isn't better suited to left?  Maybe Maier doesn't call him off flyballs between them because DDJ is also a proven center fielder?  I don't like the idea of taking data points exclusively from tweener outfielders who play both CF and R/LF, and generalizing the conclusions derived from that data to the broader population of all centerfielders and left and right fielders.

So those adjustments don't work for me.  I don't want say Coco Crisp's defense in CF is X runs more valuable than Mark Teahen's defense in RF because David DeJesus is X runs better in left field than he is in center field.  I want something that says Coco Crisp's defense is worth Y runs because if you brought in some AAA CF, he'd surrender Y more runs than Crisp would.  We need to know Crisp and Teahen's values over replacement defenders. 

Value over replacement player is pretty easy--as far as I know, they just take the league average, and multiply it by about 80%, and bam! that's what Jason Smith can offer you.  But defense doesn't seem to be like that.  A AAA center fielder won't catch 20% fewer fly balls than Crisp will.  Garth Brooks would do better than that.  So how is a replacement defender defined?  VORP assumes league average defense for the position.  Perhaps VORD should assume league average offense for that position?   Something tells me our RF replacement defenders who can play league average offense for RF are already in the Majors playing 1B.  So how do you define a replacement defender?

Is this season five? I can't remember.

Anyway, tonight's episode:

A mysterious person in the Office has made a huge mess in the microwave and will not clean it up.

Does Pam return? Does Toby? Does Michael begin his path towards being fired?

Many of the people on this site are familiar with David Cameron, one of the guys behind the USSMariner blog.  During the 2007 season, dave wrote an open letter to then-Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves about Felix Hernandez's ridiculously predictable pitch selection early in games.  This led to a concerted effort by Chaves and Hernandez to mix pitches, and both men gave interviews to the local media saying that they realized that if an average fan who writes on the internet can figure out what Felix was about to throw, the hitter probably could, too.  It was a pretty damn cool instance of a blogger actually effecting the way baseball was played. 

You can find the letter here:

Open Letter to Rafael Chaves

This letter got Dave nominated for a $10,000 college blogging scholarship based on an internet vote. 

If the powers that be at Royals Review don't want promotion-type fanposts on the site, I understand and will take it down. If, however, you believe we need more level-headed analysts out there to keep the tempers down when the Battle for Grass Creek once again rears its ugly head, head on over and support a damn good baseball blogger in need.

Follow This link and vote for Dave!

*disclaimer: I am not Dave Cameron, just someone who has greatly enjoyed his writing over the years.

After the Jacobs and Crisp trades, I thought it would be instructive to see where the payroll stands.  So, below you'll see the Royals current payroll.  I have included arbitration and pre-arbitration estimates.  I included arbitration numbers for just about all eligible players, except for Gobble and Gathright, as I think they either will be non-tendered or traded before opening day.

Before you jump to the numbers, I want to mention this from today's KC Star:

Even with a projected payroll pushing a club-record $70 million, the Royals, apparently, aren’t yet tapped out.

"There’s flexibility for us to do some other things," Moore said. "We have the opportunity to improve our payroll maybe 20-25 percent over last year."

Moore previously cited $70 million as a likely ceiling, which would represent roughly a 20 percent increase over last year’s $58.2 million payroll on opening day. A 25 percent hike boosts the total to about $72.7 million.

First, that $58.2M 2008 payroll number is, to put it succinctly, bullshit.  That is a weak, lazy and very soft job of journalism.  That was the payroll of the 25 men who happened to be on the MLB roster on opening day.  It was not the Royals actual 2008 major league payroll (total of all outlayed major league contract expenditures), nor even what it was projected to be back on opening day.  That number doesn't include Berroa's $5.25M salary as well as some others.

When all was said and done, the Royals 2008 MLB payroll was actually about $67M.  So when Moore says that he can improve payroll by 20-25 percent, I think that means that the payroll budget is potentially $80-84M.  Or that could just be fan-placating rhetoric on Moore's part.  But Moore certainly knows what the real major payroll was.  Currently, the Royals payroll projects at about $71M.

OK, the initial fanshot on the trade is getting massive, which is awesome, but also a bit bulky.

Do you hate the Crisp-Ramirez trade? Or are you mixed but still see negative signs? Will you continue to yearn for Ramon Ramirez throughout the winter?

Let's use this space to collect our negative thoughts on Crisp/Ramirez.

OK, the initial fanshot on the trade is getting massive, which is awesome, but also a bit bulky.

Do you like the Crisp-Ramirez trade? Or are you mixed but still see positive signs?

via yorkroberts.files.wordpress.com

Hit me with your positive thoughts here. I'd like to see what people think and sorta get things organized.

Negatives will go in a different fanpost.

Being that we made the Coco Crisp trade, I still see us making another trade, probably involving DDJ or Teahen.  I still like the idea of getting Fontenot and Pie from the Cubs for either one of those guys.  I know not a lot of people like this for DDJ but Fontenot could start right away at 2B (900 OPS last year) putting Callaspo as utility again.  This would also put Pie as 4th OF (good spot for him being that we are would be waiting for him to get better and realize his talent).  These two moves  get rid of TPJ and Gathright.

New Bench:  Buck, Shealy, Callaspo, and Pie. (no TPJ, Gload, German, Gathright)

Lineup:

C Olivo

1 Jacobs

2 Fontenot

3 Gordon

S Aviles

L Teahen/DDJ (one would be traded)

C Crisp

R Guillen

DH Butler

Are you telling me this isn't any better than last year?  With this, we just dumped ALL of the fluff off the 25 man roster!  ALL OF IT!  GLOAD!  GATHRIGHT!   TPJ!  And what did we add to the team to get rid of those 3?  A guy who just hit 32 bombs, a guy with a 900 OPS who plays good 2B, and a slick fielding CF that just hit .450 in the playoffs.  And what did we have to get rid of to makes these changes?  Really?  Just 2 middle relievers and an average OFer?

Sign me up for that.  I just can't take the over-analyzing anymore.

Anyway we can change the name of this site to "The Fans of Rob Neyer?"

Per Brian McRae, as reported by MLBTradeRumors.com:

According to Brian McRae reporting for Sports Radio 810 in Kansas City, the Royals acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for reliever Ramon Ramirez.  I emailed McRae to confirm, and he said, "It's a done deal."  The Royals get speed and a capable center fielder, while the Red Sox receive a quality late-game reliever.

Crisp, 29, hit .283/.344/.407 in 409 plate appearances this year.  His center field defense saved 26 bases over the average last year, but was two below this year (he did battle groin, hamstring, knee, and foot issues).  Crisp will earn $5.75MM in '09 and has an $8MM club option with a $500K buyout for '10.

The Red Sox trim payroll here, as Ramirez is not yet arbitration-eligible.  He will not reach free agency until after the 2012 season, so the Red Sox impressively acquired four years of his services.  The 27 year-old posted a 2.64 ERA in 71.2 innings this year while whiffing 70.  The Royals might have to add a reliever to compensate for his absence.  They're also a bit heavy on outfielders at this point.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/coco-crisp-trad.html

I've been following the exploits of Trajan Langdon in the Euroleague Basketball world for the last 5 or so years. These guys play some serious ball, and they make some serious money doing it. Now Sasha Kaun has joined my Alaskan homie playing for CSKA Moscow. KU joins Duke in Moscow; how can that go wrong?

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/teams/showteam?clubcode=CSK

Trajan has been a star in this league for years now. I think he's given up on the NBA now. He's probably making a million a year now, so I suppose he'll survive. We may yet see Sasha in an NBA uniform; you can't teach a person to be 7" tall. Oh, yeah, Trajan won some championships over there.

via cache.daylife.com

#1 Mike Moustakas, 3B
#2 Eric Hosmer, 1B
#3 Daniel Cortes, RHP
#4 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B
#5 Daniel Duffy, LHP
#6 Carlos Rosa, RHP
#7 Tim Melville, RHP
#8 Mike Montgomery, LHP
#9 Johnny Giavotella, 2B
#10 Blake Wood, RHP
#11 Daniel Gutierrez, RHP
#12 Derrick Robinson, CF
#13 Jason Taylor, 1B/LF
#14 Joe Dickerson, RF
#15 ???

Dickerson gets on finally.

Bianchi and Pimentel back on, Runion off.

Short scouting reports:

Jeff Bianchi | 2B/SS | 22-years-old | 6-foot-0, 180 pounds
Acquired - 2nd Round, 2005 | '08 Level - Wilmington (High A)
Vitals - .255/.290/.442, 95/20 K/BB, 13-for-17 SB
-Athletic player with sound defensive actions. Excellent power for a middle infielder. Strike zone judgment a work in progress. History of injury problems, but nothing major this past season.

Edward Cegarra | RHP | 19-years-old | 5-foot-11, 175 pounds
Acquired - UDFA: Venezuela | '08 Level - Burlington (Low A)/Wilmington (High A)
Vitals - 8-11, 3.99 ERA, 160.0 IP, 112/26 K/BB, 0.88 FB/GB
-Undersized strike thrower that does an excellent job of not giving free passes. Currently possesses average fastball that runs up to 93. Flips in curveballs for strikes to keep hitters off balance. Working on changeup which he'll need to remain a starter.

Kelvin Herrera | RHP | 18-years-old | 5-foot-10, 165 pounds
Acquired - UDFA: Dominican | '08 Level - Burlington (R)/Burlington (Low A)
Vitals - 4-2, 1.56 ERA, 63.1 IP, 52/7 K/BB, 1.67 FB/GB
-Small pitcher with pitchability and maturity beyond his years. Fastball ranges 89-91 and runs to 94 with boring action in on RHP. Shows plus curve on occasion as well as average changeup. Superb command for his age.

Julio Pimentel | RHP | 22-years-old | 6-foot-1, 190 pounds
Acquired - Trade w/ Dodgers in 2006 | '08 Level - NW Arkansas (AA)
Vitals - 7-13, 5.38 ERA, 157.1 IP, 115/52 K/BB, 1.26 FB/GB
-Hard throwing prospect acquired in 2006 from the Dodgers. Has three pitches, a 91-93 sinking fastball (slightly higher velocity in relief), a plus changeup, and a curveball. Still needs to work on command. Profiles better as a reliever in the mold of Fernando Rodney.

Tyler Sample | RHP | 19-years-old | 6-foot-7, 240 pounds
Acquired - 3rd Round, 2008 | '08 Level - Arizona (R)
Vitals - 0-5, 9.00 ERA, 27 IP, 39/29 K/BB, 2.60 FB/GB
-Huge frame with big time fastball/curveball combination. Changeup is a work in progress, as is command of all his pitches. Sample has huge upside but is light years away from helping out the Royals.