Kyle Davies (4.71 ERA) makes his eight start of the season tonight, at home, against the division-leading White Sox. As mentioned last week in the Critical Start for Davies post, Hiram's seen an early string of iffy peripherals turn into three consecutive bombed out starts, most recently a 4 IP/7 ER shelling in Baltimore.

Meanwhile, the White Sox counter with Jose Contreras (4.02 ERA). Despite being sixty five years old, Contreras has found himself a solid pitcher again. In his last five starts however, Contreras has posted a 7.71 ERA. He must be smart like Banny to be able to do that.

I've read talk on this and other boards about dealing Ron Mahay, fueled by reports by  Ken Rosenthal and other rumor mongers that several clubs have interest in our lefty reliever.

However, this inevitably leads to wildly optimistic trade proposals by fans, positing that if we only packaged Mahay with a useless part like Esteban German or Jimmy Gobble, we could land a top prospect like Matt Gamel!

Well it doesn't quite work that way. But how does it work? Let's examine what solid middle relievers go for in July deadline trades. I tried to examine just trades in which a solid middle reliever was the focus of the deal. I did not include closers.

This is not meant to be an advocacy of dealing for Mahay. I rather like having him around. But if we are listening to offers, this is to give you an idea of what realistic offers are out there for a guy like Mahay.

via mlb.mlb.com

2007

San Diego deals Scott Linebrink to Milwaukee for P Joe Thatcher, P Will Inman and P Steve Garrison

Many observers thought Milwaukee had overpaid for the mediocre Linebrink. He was an impeding free agent, but the Brewers were desperate for bullpen help after the implosions of Matt Wise and Derrick Turnbow. John Sickels had Inman ranked as the Brewers third best prospect, a "B", and had Garrison listed as honorable mention before the 2007 season. Baseball America had Inman third as well. Thatcher was more of an organizational soldier. He's already made the big leagues as a LOOGY, although he has not pitched all that well. This is probably the best kind of deal we could hope for.

New York Yankees deal Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers for IF Wilson Betimet

Proctor only had three years of service time when he was dealt, so that puts him in a different circumstance than Mahay. He was dealt for Betimet, a one top top prospect who had never really gotten much of a chance in Atlanta or LA. He had shown signs of good power, but always hit for low average, making the Dodgers reluctant to put him in the every day lineup. Getting a player that has shown signs of success in a reserve role, but hasn't gotten the chance to start might be a good gamble on the part of the Royals to bolster their offense.

2006

Kansas City trades Mike MacDougal to the Chicago White Sox for P Dan Cortes and P Tyler Lumsden

We're well acquainted with this deal, perhaps the pinnacle of Dayton's tenure thus far. MacDougal was electric, but inconsistent, but the White Sox were attracted to his "Proven Closer" and "All-Star" tags. Plus, they were desperate as well. Lumsden was actually considered the better prospect, ranking 16th on Sickels list for the White Sox in 2006, while Cortes was 18th. But Lumsden has stunk, while Cortes looks like one of the Royals best pitching prospects. Another coup like this would be huge for Dayton and the Royals.

2005

Oakland trades Chad Bradford to Boston for OF Jay Payton

Not even sure this should be in the discussion. Bradford hadn't pitched all year due to injury. Jay Payton was a one-time starter declining into benchville. A trade like this would be sorely disappointing, and unlikely.

San Diego trades Ron Villone to Florida for P Yorman Bazardo and P Mike Flannery

Villone is a decent comp for Mahay - both inconsistent in their careers, but strung together a few nice seasons in a row. Villone was more of a LOOGY than Mahay was, but not used exclusively as such. He had a 2.45 ERA at the time of the deal. Bazardo was the 9th best prospect in the Marlins organization, according to Sickels.

2004

San Francisco trades Felix Rodriguez to Philadelphia for OF Ricky Ledee and P Alfredo Simon

Should we just throw this one out because Brian Sabean's stupidity is such an outlier? Felix Rodriguez was a hard throwing middle reliever with quite a bit of value. Sabean dealt him for Ledee, a former busted prospect now serving as a fourth outfielder. Ledee would play 31 games with the Giants and hit .113. Simon was a decent pitching prospect in A ball, but didn't do anything at all after being dealt.

2003

Milwaukee trades Curt Leskanic to Kansas City for IF Alejandro Machado and P Wes Obermueller

Remember when we were buyers at the deadline? That was awesome. We acquired Curt "Let's Panic!" Leskanic at the deadline in 2003 for two guys that were really just organizational filler. Leskanic was actually awesome in 2003, both for the Brewers and the Royals, so this was quite a fleecing for Allard Baird (how many times do I get to write that?) It was in 2004 that Curt was awful.

San Diego trades Matt Herges to San Francisco for P Clay Hensley

Matt Herges in separate deals has been traded for Guillermo Mota, Chris Young and Clay Hensley. I don't know if a mediocre reliever has ever been dealt separately for more useful parts before. Herges had a 2.86 ERA for the Fathers when he was dealt upstate. Hensley was in his second pro season, but was moving fast through the system. He ended up putting together a nice 2006 season in the bigs, but hasn't found that consistency since.

2002

Cleveland trades Paul Shuey to the Los Angeles Dodgers for P Terry Mulholland, P Ricardo Rodriguez, and P Francisco Cruceta

I seem to recall Shuey being pretty hot property in 2002. He posted a 2.41 ERA for the Tribe and had a pretty solid track record of success. For some reason, the Indians agreed to take the 39 year old 7.61 ERA, rotting corpse of Terry Mulholland. They also got two electric arms in Ricardo Rodriguez and Francisco Cruceta. Rodriguez was the 69th best prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Cruceta was in his first pro season, and was dominating low A ball.

San Diego trades Steve Reed (and Jason Middlebrooks) to the New York Mets for P Bobby Jones, P Josh Reynolds and OF Jason Bay

Reed was a submariner who posted a 1.98 ERA for the Padres. San Diego packaged him with Middlebrooks, a 27 year old organizational soldier and landed LOOGY Bobby Jones (the bad one) a 22 year old pitcher named Josh Reynolds, and AA outfielder named Jason Bay. Reynolds was putting together a very solid season in A ball, but hadn't done much prior to that and wasn't considered much of a prospect. Bay had put together a couple of decent, but not great seasons in the Mets lower minors and was not considered one of their top prospects. If Dayton can luck his way into finding another Jason Bay, I'm taking him to craps table.

2001

Baltimore trades Mike Trombley to the Los Angeles Dodgers for P Kris Foster and C Geronimo Gil

Trombley had been a solid reliever for years, and at the deadline he was dealt for 26 year old minor league reliever Kris Foster and power hitting minor league catcher Geronimo Gil. Foster seems like a throw-in - he was having a fine 2001, but was coming off injury and was not very young. Gil had shown some solid power, albeit in the Texas League, and was blocked by a future Hall of Famer. He never did much, which is why I say, never trade for a catching prospect.

2000

Houston trades Doug Henry to San Diego for P Scott Linebrink

Hey, there's Scott Linebrink again, this time as a youngster! The circle of life is complete. Linebrink was a 23 year old, posting awful ERAs in the minors, with good peripherals. Henry was a mediocre reliever, posting a 4.45 ERA for Houston before he went on to suck for the Royals the next year.

Pittsburgh trades Jason Christiansen to St. Louis for SS Jack Wilson

Christiansen had been a solid LOOGY for years in Pittsburgh, but was having his worst season with an ERA around 5.00. Still, Tony LaRussa has a lefty reliever fetish, and so the Cards acquired Christiansen for a smooth-fielding, high average, no power AA shortstop. Kinda weird that the Cards would deal a guy with so much grit.

So there you have it, that's the precedent that has been set for middle reliever. Can we get a Prince Fielder for Mahay and Olivo? Perhaps if Doug Melvin is off his meds, but I wouldn't count on it. But that's not to say we couldn't get a solid trade that can help our ballclub for years to come if the right deal comes around.

Last night, July 7, 2008, featured perhaps the most amazing and underrated event in baseball history.

Two Allard Baird prodigies, Runelvys Hernandez and Denny Bautista, got decisions in the same game, for the Astros and Pirates, respectively.  Some would say that the real story was that there are at least 2 other GM's in MLB who also believe that the above-referenced players belong on an MLB roster.  I contend that the true story is reflected in the box score:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280707123

Runelvys sucks, that is apparent.  But the success of Bautista, albeit one game, in a relief role is what is most interesting.  (In retrospect - having Bautista in a middle-relief role, instead of Yabuta or - gulp - Nomo, and Ryan Shealy not sucking at-bats away from someone more deserving in AAA would probably have been nice.)

Clearly Baird wouldn't have foreseen how Bautista could more likely than not be a success out of the pen.  The questions I ask everyone at Royals Review are:  Why didn't GMDM see this?  and Does it matter?  Was the risk/reward of the Shealy acquisition worth it?  Are we upset about letting Bautista go????

With the trade deadline looming and the continued pursuit of the roster/organization on everyone's mind  it's worthwhile to take a look at the moves Dayton Moore has already made. Part I takes a look at how the position players with the big club. Stay tuned for Part II (big league pitchers) and Part III (minor leaguers).

It was 2006, Lebanon and Israel were doing their thing, FEMA did a "heckuva job" in New Orleans and the Royals were supposedly beginning an era of competence (as per Posnanski after Opening Day) thanks to a bizarre December spending spree that brought in Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Joe Mays, Paul Bako and Reggie Sanders. (Vintage RR posts here and here.) Meanwhile, the franchise was a full season behind the Beltran trade and preparing for the Jackson County Stadium Tax Subsidy Vote. In a stunning coincidence, Bud Selig "promised" Kansas City an All-Star game pending a proper allocation of JC's limitless public monies.

To a surprising extent, the 2006 lineup, as Moore more or less inherited it, remains the 2008 edition. You can find good teams that have had more turnover than this:

The 2006 Royals went 62-100.

You can quibble with some of these slots as they are crudely defined here -- for example, I'm considering Gathright a bench player in the table above, although he's actually played more innings in CF than anyone else -- but for quick and dirty purposes these are the positions according to the organizational masterplan for the two seasons. As in Gathright's case, for some of the players "bench" may not be quite the right label, but more or less it works, and I've included only the additional players who logged significant playing time.

What stands out is how much holdover there has been. Three of the positions are exactly the same, although perhaps not without some controversy. Buck is still the primary catcher, Grudzielanek is still at second base and DeJesus is still in center. Moreover, Mark Teahen remains an everyday fixture in the lineup, although he's shifted from third base to the outfield, and Esteban German is still a utility player. When you factor in that Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, lineup cornerstones if everything goes well, are also Baird-era draftees, the 2008 lineup remains a very Allard creation.

Subjectively and intuitively, the 2008 edition should be better than their 2006 progenitor: the holdovers (Buck, Teahen, DeJesus) should be hitting their peaks, Emil Brown has been upgraded to Jose Guillen and a decline-phase Mike Sweeney has been converted to supposed prospect and pure hitter Billy Butler. Miguel Olivo is a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Unfortunately, the sum of their parts just hasn't quite added up to being much more better than the Minky era. The 2006 team ended up averaging 4.67 runs per game, better than the current squad's 4.06 average.

Huh?

To start, the holdovers, DeJesus somewhat excepted, have failed to truly break out. Grudz and German are still around and are, as the man sang, still the same. We wait still on Gordon and Butler to truly arrive. Seemingly really easy upgrades at SS and 1B have turned into, umm... Tony Pena Jr. and Ross Gload. This bears repeating. Just find someone better than the worst overall player in the game (Berroa) and one of the weakest first basemen (Minky). He couldn't do it. Where have you gone Doug Mientkiewicz? Jose Guillen has had one insanely awesome month and two bad ones. Finally, although Miguel Olivo has out-hit Paul Bako, Dayton Moore's first big league pickup, Joey Gathright, has eaten up a ton of playing time over the last three seasons and consistently failed to hit. In 237 plate appearances this year, Gator has three extra-base hits. Three. In 248 last year, he had eight. Gains like the Bako/Olivo and the Brown/Guillen exchanges have been mitigated by players like Gathright.

Over the last few months there's been a persistent meme that Moore is focused on rebuilding -- really, "building" should be used throughout this post, since it was so long ago that anything around here was actually built -- the organization's pitching coffers, and that the lineup will be more of a patchwork project. And while it isn't yet clear that the team's lineup core is actually enough of one to bother building around, it was certainly more than there was among the hurlers. Sure, in 2008, Butler and Gordon are disappointments, but they are near locks to improve, at least a little bit. There are problems however, and Moore is not immune criticism for his utter failure to upgrade the roster at two slots, SS and 1B, that looked to be no-brainer/any AAA lifer would have been better. He hasn't found better bench options than what Allard managed in Stairs/Costa/Graffy and it's possible he's done worse.

Lastly, there's the large but mysterious issue of defense. The quality of the team's defense is harder to definitively pin-down, but according to BP's defensive efficiency data, the 2008 squad is, relative to competition, an improvement. Then again, the 2006 team was terrible, posted a D-Eff of .682, good for 28th best in baseball and 13th in the AL. The current team stands at 19th overall and 9th in baseball. (Although the pure number, .698, is not much different.) So regarding defense, Moore has taken a terrible team and produced a below-average one.

The Royals hired Moore on May 31, 2006 and after over two years of his stewardship, the offense is worse than the bad one he inherited.  Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton's handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina's performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.

The impossible dream: a win over the Devil Rays.

Ninety games? That isn't fair! I can't believe so much of this season is already gone. We'll all be in the ground soon.

Anti-Sweeeeeeep!

Rays envy.

Not only have their position prospects eclipsed ours, so have their pitching ones as well. Like today's starter, James Shields (3.70 ERA).

The Royals counter with Luke Hochevar (4.91 ERA).

Treyball. Where finding more playing time for Joey Gathright and Tony Pena Jr. happens.